Bosnia and Herzegovina – Croatia, the War, and the Future

Hey New York Times – Croatia’s Franjo Tudjman’s True Image Needs No Buffing!

January 7, 2023 by inavukic 14 Comments

Having read the latest New York Times article by Andrew Higgins, “To Buff a Balkan Leader’s Image, a Filmmaker Calls In Kevin Spacey”, published 3 January 2023, few things must be said first up in response to this journalistic tripe.

First, Croatia’s First President’s Franjo Tudjman’s true image does not need buffing – it already shines where it counts – among and with all Croatian people bar some former communist Yugoslavia operatives and their lapdogs; he as leader achieved independence, ushered Croatia out of the communist regime albeit soaked in blood and set Croatia towards the path of democracy and European Union.

Second, Andrew Higgins may wish to refresh his knowledge of the Balkan Peninsula countries or change his preferences about placing Croatia on the geographical map that covers Balkan Peninsula. Croatia is not considered to be a Balkan country in the full sense given that almost 60% of its territory is not situated nor has it ever been within the borders of the Balkan Peninsula maps. Furthermore, Franjo Tudjman was born and bred in the part of Croatia that is not and never has been included in the map of the Balkan Peninsula. Croatian people do not consider Croatia as a Balkan country but a South-eastern European country just as all bar the “Higginses” of the world place it.

Third, 1990’s war of independence from communist Yugoslavia in Croatia (and Bosnia and Herzegovina) did not happen by spontaneous combustion, where no culprit can be found. It happened by Serb and former Yugoslav People’s Army brutal and genocidal aggression and, hence, Croatia’s absolute and rightful need to defend bare lives of its people.

Fourth, the Croatians did not ethnically cleanse Serbs out of Croatia after the liberating military Operation Storm in August 1995 as Higgins evidently would like the world to believe. Serb evacuation was planned and ordered by Serbs and Serbia, but Serbs did ethnically cleanse of Croats 25% of Croatian territory known as Krajina as they occupied the area with the help of rebel Serbs in Croatia who did not want an independent Croatia.

One can’t help but wonder and stare in disbelief and bitter disappointment at what some journalists, even Pulitzer Prize winners, are capable of concocting to aid a push for a bigoted line they obviously pursue when it comes important issues such as exiting communist regime for democracy, defending oneself from brutal aggression etc. And so, it is more than plain that New York Times journalist Andrew Higgins did not and does not like Croatia’s first President, Franjo Tudjman, and that such personal sentiments may, sadly, have influenced this latest abominably biased and fact-twisting article on Croatia’s fight for independence in the 1990’s. But then again, Andrew Higgins has appeared, along with a couple of other New York Times journalists, as the butt of jokes in Kyiv, Ukraine, for “getting matters wrong”. Andrew Higgins in this article writes about Croatian “ethnic cleansing” in this war, of Serbs! The fact is that it was Serbs who ethnically cleansed all Croats and other non-Serbs from the quarter of Croatia’s territory they occupied at the start of their war of aggression. They also ethnically cleansed a large part of Bosnia and Herzegovina of Croats and Bosniaks (Muslims)!

When Croatian forces as part of the liberating military operation Storm on 5 August 1995 entered Croatia’s Serb-occupied town of Knin, the town was already deserted (see for example the well-documented book by Nikica Baric, “Serb rebellion in Croatia 1991 – 1995”, 2005, p. 520). Serb paramilitary forces, Serb insurgent leadership, and “civilians” fled Knin for Republika Srpska (Self-proclaimed Serbian Republic on the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina) and Serbia. Estimates of the number of Serbs who fled from Croatia vary by sources. Different sources cite different numbers of Serbs that left Croatia at the time and immediately after the Operation Storm that liberated Serb-occupied Croatian territory. These figures vary from 90,00 to 150,000 to 300,000. Of course, the latter figure is a fabrication of Serbia’s propaganda to aid its fanciful and politically driven claims that Serbs were victims! The departure of the Serbs from Serb-occupied areas liberated by the 1995 Operation Storm was planned, organised, and executed by the insurgent Serb leadership from Knin with Slobodan Milosevic’s directive backing from Belgrade. This is a well-documented historical fact that seems to have eluded Andrew Higgins and those like him who prefer to make their false assertions appear credible by talking to people like Dejan Jovic, a staunch opposer of Croatian independence, of Serbian origins and pro-communist Yugoslavia “academic crusader”. The fact is that the vast majority of Serb “civilians” from Northern Dalmatia and Lika were evacuated with the aid of Serb forces, ignoring Franjo Tudjman’s pleas to remain in Croatia as equal citizens of Croatia (see further my article dated August 4, 2020). Between 4 and 5 August 1995 the evacuation of Serbs from Croatia followed the decision made by the Serb self-proclaimed authorities of the Republic of Serb Krajina Supreme Defence Council, led by its president Milan Martic (convicted in June 2007 to 35 years prison by the International Criminal Tribunal in the Hague ICTY for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Croatia) and commander-in-chief of the Serb Army of Krajina (the Serb-occupied part of Croatia) lieutenant general Mile Mrksic (Convicted by ICTY in 2012 to 20 years prison for war crimes, viz murder, torture, inhumane acts in Croatia against Croats). Although the decision to evacuate Croatian areas they had occupied and ethnically cleansed of Croats did not apply to Serb military forces, they nevertheless joined the “civilians” and left the area with them.

“Croatia, almost ethnically homogeneous as a result of the 1990s violence that drove out many Serbs and members of other minorities,” writes Higgins, leading one to believe that it was Croats who ethnically cleansed the Serbs from their homes in Croatia and the truth is and was the opposite! Indeed, it occurs to a lucid and decent mind that Serbs may well have fled Croatia in 1995, including “civilians”, largely due to fear of vengeance for the horror and crimes they themselves committed there between 1991 and August 1995. Furthermore, the fact that their evacuation was an order even from Belgrade, Serbia, seems to suggest that Serbia planned well in advance to try and convince the world of a fallacy that Croats ethnically cleansed them! Such an elaborate plan was not beyond Serbia’s propaganda machinery, and it does not seem beyond it today. Annihilation of Croats and Croatia was Serbia’s goal and political platform to which even so-called civilians subscribed. Multitudes of these Serb “civilians” in Croatia (or Bosnia and Herzegovina) cannot truly be considered civilians as per international humanitarian laws but rather non-combatant civilians. Many held convictions of Greater Serbia creation, acted upon them without a gun in their hands, aided the Serb paramilitary, military, and Yugoslav forces in various ways. Many, for example, are held responsible for or actively contributing to the rounding up of their Croatian (and Bosniak/Muslim) neighbours as they were being forcefully taken to concentration camps in Serbia, e.g, Begejci and Sremska Mitrovica ( the ABC TV Australia Award-winning 1995 documentary by journalist Chris Masters, “The Coward’s War”, is a great record of truth on these matters) where they were tortured, starved, raped, humiliated. Had the international criminal tribunal for Former Yugoslavia in the Hague tested and differentiated between groups of so-called civilians to a fuller extent it would have found, I am convinced, an overwhelming Serb “civilian” following and aiding the military aggressor.

Andrew Higgins quotes Warren Zimmerman, US Ambassador to former Yugoslavia, who in 1992 wrote that “Mr. Tudjman’s election as Croatia’s president in May 1990 had brought to power ‘a narrow-minded, crypto-racist regime’ that, in tandem with Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia, was unleashing ‘nationalism, the Balkan killer.” Not a single word here that Croatian people wanted out of the oppressive communist Yugoslavia, they overwhelmingly voted for Franjo Tudjman to lead them into democracy and independence! One simply cannot call a will for democracy and freedom by the name of nationalism, with negative connotations, and get away with it. Especially not in the case of Yugoslavia which was first created in 1918 to benefit the Serbian Monarchy and Croatian parliament never ratified the decision by a few to join Croatia to Serbia and Slovenia and form Yugoslavia (first kingdom and then post WWII totalitarian communist nightmare for most Croats). Higgins, hence, subscribes it seems to a small army of politically twisted and biased people who keep spinning the corrupt idea that it was nationalism that sparked and aided the terrible war of Serb and Yugoslav aggression against Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina! The war occurred because majority of Croats wanted out of communist Yugoslavia and Serbs did not want this. They murdered, tortured, raped, ethnically cleansed, destroyed homes and buildings… in Croatia to try and stop Croatian independence and expand the power of the rotten pursuits to create a Greater Serbia, stealing other people’s territory. Croatia had no option or choice but to defend itself and kick-in its will power for the right to self-preservation. Indeed, nationalism was not responsible for the bloodshed. It was Serb brutal aggression, laced with pursuits to create an ethnically clean Greater Serbia.

Why Andrew Higgins blatantly in this article takes it upon himself to encourage the world to shun and condemn a man – Kevin Spacey – who has so far not been found guilty of sexual abuse entailed in reported allegations against him, or any other crime, can perhaps be answered by any of us who have lived the democracy in which all are innocent until proven guilty. If this article is to serve as any measure of decency towards society, towards democratic rule of law, towards someone who is the subject of criminal allegations but not yet proven guilty then Andrew Higgins appears to gravely lack any decency towards justice and due process to say the least. Andrew Higgins, it appears delights in spreading the awful occurrences where some (even Hollywood!) have written Kevin Spacey off although charges against him have not been tested or proven in a court of law. A large dose of glee, or “schadenfreude” as Germans would put it, in this article is saddening.

It’s difficult to even fathom what went through Andrew Higgins’ mind when he wrote this mean article in which he obviously tries to convince the unsuspecting public that Croatia’s First President Franjo Tudjman’s true image needs “buffing” (i.e., cleaning or polishing). Then, he implies that “buffing” is not likely to happen through the film in which Kevin Spacey plays the role of Tudjman.

Franjo Tudjman is and has been a popular leader among those that matter, those who wanted Croatia’s freedom and independence, and that was 94% of voters in 1991 independence referendum. As for others, including perhaps Andrew Higgins, no amount of buffing could remove the effects of untruths and half-truths spread about Tudjman have had on some. No, the film with Kevin Spacey is not made to buff Tudjman’s image it was made to present, once again, considering so many lies and untruths being repeatedly spread about Tudjman, the glorious truth of Croatia’s fight and courage for independence!

Contrary to a common narrative whereby politics drives susceptibility to fake news, we are overall as society of the world fortunate with the reality that people are ‘better’ at discerning truth from falsehood when evaluating politically concordant news or published content. This is truly comforting as one trusts that falsehoods and hatred portrayed against Croatia and its 1990’s War of Independence as one finds in this Andrew Higgins article, will mellow in time, and end up in dark corners and abysses where they belong. Ina Vukic

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Andrew Higgins, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Communist Yugoslavia, Croatia, Croatian war of independence, ethnic cleansing, Franjo Tudjman, Milan Martic, Mile Mrksic, New York Times, Serb aggression, Serb exodus from Croatia 1995, transitioning from communism to democracy

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA REMAINS A TROUBLE SPOT

December 17, 2022 by inavukic 12 Comments

From Hrvatsko Nebo portal 13 December 2022

A political analysis by Dr Josip Stjepandic first published in Zur Zeit.

“Wars of disintegration in the former Yugoslavia gave rise to seven new states, including the former Austro-Hungarian annexation area of Bosnia-Herzegovina (BH), which has since been in a permanent state of crisis as an international protectorate.

In addition to a bloated administrative apparatus that promotes corruption, the different political ideas of the three-constituent people (Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats) are causing problems for the young state. The Serbs only want Serbia and reject any BH proposal. In terms of foreign policy, they aspire to Russia. The (Muslim) Bosniaks see themselves as permanent victims of Western conspiracies and want a unitary state that they don’t have to share with the Serbs and Croats. In terms of foreign policy, they behave like the western Turkish (or Iranian) province. As the smallest of the constituent peoples, the Croats reject the state in which they are deprived of their ethnic and human rights, as in the former Yugoslavia. With their aspirations to the EU and NATO, the Croats in BH can hardly achieve anything, although most of them are Croatian and therefore also EU citizens.

The elections for the state presidency and the parliaments, which took place on the election day on October 2, should have bring improvement. There weren’t really good conditions for this. The central election commission was composed in an illegal manner without examining the qualifications of the candidates and in the past ruled pro-Bosniak. The electoral register contains 3.3 million names, although the country’s population is only 2.06 million, which is very conducive to electoral fraud. After all, the constitutional court already quashed an important rule for the composition of the Chamber of Peoples in FBH in 2016. The Bosniak leadership used this rule, issued by HR Wolfgang Petritsch in 2002, to squeeze the numerically weaker Croats out of power. The best example of this is Zeljko Komsic, who, despite his numerous anti-Croatian outbursts, has been elected Croatian member of the three-man state presidency with the Bosniak vote against bitter resistance from the Croats since 2006. In 2018, Komsic even wanted to prevent the construction of the Peljesac Bridge, the largest EU project in Croatia, with a lawsuit before the International Court of Justice in The Hague.

The elections passed peacefully, despite many complaints of irregularities, which OSCE monitors seem to have missed. Among the winners was again Komsic, who outperformed his Croatian competitor (Borjana) Kristo by 43,000 votes. The results from 13 constituencies, where the number of voters is higher than the number of inhabitants and at the same time very few Croats live, show that he got his votes exclusively from the Bosniaks. There he achieved a lead of 43,000 votes.

The star of the election day was HR Christian Schmidt, who followed the Austrian Valentin Inzko in 2021. Since the Bosniak leadership let all Croatian proposals to change the electoral rule in terms of so-called legitimate representation (each ethnic group elects its own representative) come to nothing, Schmidt issued a temporary rule after the polling stations were closed, by increasing the number of seats in the house of the people, so that the Bosniaks cannot circumvent the blocking minority of the Croatian representatives. This temporarily ensures that the Bosniaks, who have been massively incited by Ankara and Tehran, cannot take over 100% of the power in the BH Federation and two thirds in the state as a whole, as desired.

The photo of Ambassador (Martina) Mlinarevic casting her vote in a ballot box made out of a shoe box in the embassy in Prague shows how seriously such an election should be taken. The law prescribes a transparent box. Mlinarevic, a member of the Komsic cadre, is a dental laboratory assistant by trade, although a postgraduate diploma is required by law to be an ambassador and is more conspicuous for her poorly diplomatic choice of words than for her achievements.

HR Schmidt wanted to prevent a deadlock situation by shortening several decision deadlines. However, counting the votes has already taken 3 weeks.

The talks about forming a government are going rather slowly because there is still no clear majority among the Bosniaks. At present, it looks as if the Bosniaks are represented by an eight-party coalition in the government, which is unlikely to be conducive to stability. The Serbs and Croats are likely to be represented by their strongest parties, SNSD and HDZ.

BiH exists today only through external pressure because the external powers do not want the state of Bi H to be divided. Nevertheless, the cohesion between the three peoples is extremely low. There are only two common holidays: New Year and Labor Day. The often invoked EU perspective lacks any practical basis. In addition, after January 1, 2023, BiH will be separated from Croatia by the iron Schengen border. If external pressure were to ease or even disappear, then the next war for BiH’s legacy would be at hand. The only question is whether this would come from the Serbs or the Bosniaks.”

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bosniaks, Break up of former Yugoslavia, Communist Yugoslavia, Croatia, Croats, Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Josip Stjepandic, Political trouble spot, Serbs

Bosnia And Herzegovina Hotbed Of Political Unrest And Disintegration Fears

October 7, 2022 by inavukic 7 Comments

Last Sunday’s elections in Bosnia and Hercegovina (BiH), which saw a 50% voter turnout, while marked by continued electoral and political rape of Croats in that country as one of the three constitutional peoples (Bosniaks (Muslims), Serb and Croats) delivered results that put an end to the long-lasting reign within the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina of the corrupt and corrupting Muslim Izetbegovic “dynasty”. Readers may remember it was Alija Izetbegovic, President of the Presidency of BiH to 1998 and later member of the Presidency to 2001 and Islamic philosopher who died in 2003 and was succeeded in political leadership of his only son Bekir Izetbegovic. Bekir like his father heavily leaned towards creating an Islamic state in BiH and if that failed (which has not yet) then they both would undertake measures to degrade and belittle and oppress Croats living in the same regions of the country as Bosniaks or Muslims and under supposed equal constitutional rights as constitutional peoples.

Sunday 2 October election results have out of the long-standing incumbents on the Presidency confirmed Bekir Izetbegovic’s loss and exit. This result though does not mean that Croats in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina will now be free of pressures and oppressions that come their way from Muslims or Bosniaks and perhaps it is for that very reason the country’s top international envoy whose duty and role is to oversee the implementation of the 1995 Dayton Agreement for BiH, High Representative Christian Schmidt, decided to impose wide-ranging amendments to Bosnia’s Constitution immediately after the polls had closed on Sunday, which would spill into electoral law.

It has been years since the Constitutional Court in Bosnia and Herzegovina delivered a decision in late 2016 that the country’s electoral law be changed to accommodate a guarantee that each of the three constitutional peoples would elect their own representatives in the Presidency and other representative and governing bodies in the country. This is particularly and crucially important for Croats because they are in relative smaller numbers in the country and can be outvoted in cantons by others ethnic groups that also form the constitutional people. Yet in all those years nothing had been changed in the country’s Electoral Law to accommodate the Constitutional Court’s decision from 2016 and it seems that Christian Schmidt has “put his foot down”!

The future three members of the BiH Presidency: Denis Becirovic (Muslim or Bosniak Representative on the Presidency who comes from Bekir Izetbegovic’s opposition), Zeljka Cvijanovic as Serb Representative, and Zeljko Komsic as Croat Representative. The electoral rape and utter unfairness of the country’s electoral law that places Croats at a dire disadvantage is highlighted with the fact that Borjana Kristo (HDZ Party), a candidate for Croat Representation on the Presidency, had won over 90% of Croat vote in towns and villages where in the Federation Croats live as majority ethnic group with Muslims and where, sadly and undemocratically HDZ has wielded corrupt power for decades that seems to have caused fear among many voters to vote away from HDZ because they may lose their job or perks they receive from HDZ for being politically loyal. But Muslims outnumber Croats in majority of places. Clearly Croats said a firm no to Zeljko Komsic as their Representative, but the Electoral Law favours him! It is believed that had HDZ not caused so much disappointment and existential fears among the Croats in the Federation, voter turnout would have been greater and other Croat political parties and candidates would have had a fighting chance to win significant number of seats.

Hence, the awful tragedy of electoral rape of Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina continues!

Zeljko Komsic was, again, elected to the Presidency as Croat Representative by Bosniak or Muslim, not Croat vote! Again, the electoral law was not changes as directed by the Bosnian Constitutional Court, which legislation would ensure that each of the three constitutional peoples (Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs) elect their own representatives.

Journalists rooting for status quo in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which permits oppression of Croats my Muslims or Bosniaks, will try and convince the world that the move High Representative Christian Schmidt made immediately after the polls closed on Sunday is destructive, illegal, unnecessary and that it threatens democracy in Bosnia and Herzegovina, forgetting that the 1995 Dayton Agreement which was about democracy and rights has been sabotaged and derailed too many times to count since then – not by the High Representative but by BiH politicians in power! Well, there is no democracy in the country to speak of as one of the three Constitutional people that are supposed to have the same rights as the other two continue to experience oppression and setbacks in asserting their rights. The truth is that Bosnia and Herzegovina is a corrupt political and economic pit where detrimental ethnic divisions are stronger than ever.

The surprise new intervention made on last Sunday by Schmidt changes the election law by raising the number of representatives in the Federation entity’s House of Peoples and the way they are chosen. The changes also include the deadline (one month) for the formation of the government after the election, as well as measures to ensure the functionality of the Bosniak and Croat-dominated Federation entity.

Schmidt, whose task is to oversee implementation of the 1995 peace accords that ended the 1992-95 war, also imposed changes to the Constitution of the Federation entity intending to ensure future functionality of its constitutional court and the selection process of the judges.

The US Embassy to Bosnia and Herzegovina welcomed Schmidt’s move, stating in its 4 October Press Release that the move would “bolster the stability and functionality of Bosnia and Herzegovina … This action was both urgent and necessary … The High Representative’s decision addresses problems that have plagued the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina for many years. Four years after the 2018 elections, the Federation has not implemented the results, and the Federation Constitutional Court is nearly paralysed. This has deprived Federation residents of their constitutional rights, undermined the rule of law, and emboldened ethno-nationalists across BiH. Together, these problems threaten BiH’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and multiethnic character.”.

The British Ambassador to BiH, Julian Reilly, Tweeted on 3 October: “The United Kingdom supports the role played by the High Representative and his Office in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is a source of regret that the powers of the High Representative continue to be needed in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but in the absence of domestic political 1/3”.

In essence, Schmidt has changed the formula for the appointment of delegates to the upper chamber of the Federation of BiH entity parliament, the House of Peoples. A widespread opinion came through these past days that this change will give the minorities more rights to be represented and when one looks at election results for representatives that went against Croats in areas where they are outnumbered by Muslims, one may sense a realistic hope that Croats will have a better chance now.

The measures package taken by Schmidt are said to “set the stage for further electoral and constitutional reform, including to meet BiH’s commitments for EU integration and to address concrete problems facing the country. These measures also strengthen the constitutional safeguards provided by the Dayton Peace Agreement and the Constitution for constituent peoples while preventing abuse or paralysis of the system…”

The Prime Minister of Croatia, Andrej Plenkovic, welcomed the decision of the high representative of the international community, Christian Schmidt, which changed the electoral law of Bosnia and Herzegovina, pointing out that this ensured the political survival of the Croats of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The other side to this medal is the fact that the Bosnian HDZ/Croatian Democratic Party, Andrej Plenkovic’s political party twin, is responsible for the atrocious situation regarding the continued oppression of Croats in BiH and the exodus or emigration of Croats in droves. That responsibility stems from the fact that HDZ in BiH has managed to stay in much of the power corridors and that stay did not always result from honest politics but from corrupt ones. Schmidt’s move for changes to the BiH Constitution seem like having delivered a licence of sorts for HDZ party to retain the power of maintaining a legislative and political gridlock on important matters in the Federation unless representation in the federation upper house chambers moves significantly away from HDZ. It is now up to Croats of Bosnia and Herzegovina to vote away to HDZ in future elections.

President of Croatia, Zoran Milanovic, said that the High Representative Christian Schmidt “played underground, rat games” and that the electoral system in Bosnia and Herzegovina lacks representativeness, where anyone can elect anyone and then the smallest ones suffer.

“The death penalty for Croats, in the political sense, has been commuted to life imprisonment, and we must celebrate that. But this is a disaster for Croatian foreign policy, this is quisling behaviour.

“The Croats had one candidate (for the Presidency), they came out in good numbers and they failed to prevail. There is no help. In the next four years, Zagreb will either stand behind the rights of the Croats in BiH as a constituent nation or there will be no Croats there anymore,” Milanovic concluded.

The intervention after the polling had finished by the UN’s overseer Christian Schmidt is likely to dominate the post-election landscape and its effect on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s national and political fortunes. So far, in the past thirty years BiH has been a hotbed of ethnic rivalries for power and supremacy of essentially nationalist parties, which have maintained power by stirring up sectarian divisions, while presiding over vast patronage networks which helped further cement their grip on people. But after nearly three decades of this as well as growing social and economic stagnation and decay Bosnia and Herzegovina may be ripe for the picking by external full control.

Will the moves to control stop with UN envoy Schmidt or will new winds blow in more control from the Islamic world via Turkey or from Orthodox Russia are questions that cannot be ignored.

What international actors should be concerned about is Russia’s offer of support to the Bosnian Serbs (the the Serbian Republic within BiH forged in genocide and ethnic cleansing of non-Serbs during the 1990’s war). Considering Russia’s recent and current encroachment upon eastern Ukraine and Crimea, it is not unthinkable that Moscow would collaborate with the Serbs to further expand its influence and control, fuelling conflict in the region. Russia has long championed secessionist Serb Milorad Dodik, and more recently Moscow has allied with China to threaten to strip the BiH High Representative’s powers.

Turkey’a President Erdogan has for years appeared to consider Bosnia and Herzegovina his turf, his second home… Turkey’s engagement with BiH has mostly been of a political nature but this was backed up by diverse business and cultural activities, often using the Ottoman legacy and Islam as leverage. Erdogan has had close relations with the Bosnian Muslim political parties and the detrimental effects on Croats have been visible for some years now. Islamic supremacy in the country, or Federation of BiH is a yearning only too visible.

In the absence of a tentative alternative to Dayton Agreement for BiH, rather widespread belief is that the fate of Bosnia and Herzegovina is inextricably tied to the fate of the High Representative as that body is its main bulwark against the forces of disintegration. Thuds from Russia and Turkey, and even China, are getting louder and louder though!

When it comes to visions for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s near and distant future, things are still as they were in 1995: Let’s wait and see! Anything can happen. And if Russia pushes harder to get Bosnian Serbs to sabotage any BiH EU accession and NATO membership ambitions and plans then matters of violent disintegration are surely to follow. Whether controlling forces come from Russia or Turkey with stronger resolve, or from both simultaneously, a great deal can develop including a new armed conflict. Regretfully! Ina Vukic