Generally, one would think that forming a new government would be an easy task for a political party that won a relative majority of seats at parliamentary elections. This time in Croatia things are not so and it seems as if there is a race in progress as to who will get first past the post to form government in Croatia between HDZ/Croatian Democratic Union or SDP/ Social Democratic Party; the former having won 61 out of possible 151 and the latter 42 at general elections that ended 17 April 2024. While HDZ is holding talks with possible coalition partners to form a government – Homeland Movement/DP with its 14 (now reduced to 13 since Mislav Kolakusic left and turned against them a couple of days ago) seats being a major player. SDP is doing the same. SDP has stated that they feel confident they will get first past the post to form a government. While incredulous, this scenario also would appear to have some credibility in the environment of the election results’ platter that is spotted rather heavily with left-oriented and green-left political moods or movements, besides the SDP, such as Možemo/ We Can (10 seats won), MOST (11 seats won, evidently now reduced to 9 since Nino Raspudic and Marija Selak Raspudic left them during past couple of days), IDS (Istrian Democratic Assembly) 3 seats, Ethnic Minorities group (8 seats), Independent PLatform North 2 seats and Fokus 1 seat.
The plot thickens for the race to form a government. There appears to be a third runner or option desirous of forming the new government: apparently, the Homeland Movement/DP is calling for cooperation from MOST (whom it rejected as pre-elections coalition partner!) and others in attempts to form an anti-HDZ government!
2024 Parliamentary Election’s results thus paint o picture of parties ranging from the patriotic right, which some in mean spirits call nationalist, to the green left have gained a significant number of seats in parliament. Significant enough to throw spanners into the works of forming government. Neither the prime minister’s governing Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) nor the president’s favoured Social Democratic Party (SDP) have claimed enough seats to form a government. The third tallest player, the Homeland Movement/DP, is in the middle of the political horse-trading, and it will be seen if a governing coalition can be formed. Or, failing that, a viable minority government. Or, failing that – repeated elections!
This race to form a new government could take some time yet – this is a short summary of what has been happening on the Croatian political scene since the parliamentary elections ended, after which the negotiations for the formation of the ruling majority began. The elections, as is well known, revealed that the HDZ is the relative winner, however, they also revealed that both the HDZ and the SDP without the Homeland Movement will have a hard time getting a majority in the Parliament. That is why the Homeland Movement/DP led by Ivan Penava has emerged as the main and most desirable negotiator, and even the most desirable partner in interesting post-election combinations for both left and right side of politics. It is no secret that the Homeland Movement decided to be open to all options in the negotiations, with a clear position that they do not intend to cooperate with the SDSS/Independent Serbian Democratic Party and the Možemo/We Can party. Furthermore, whether HDZ will abandon its long-time loyal partner in government, SDSS, to enter into a coalition with the Homeland Movement/DP is a point that is most interesting to keep tracking.
The election results certainly appear to point to a certain runaway disharmony and concerning lack of political clarity among the population. One could say that votes landed “all over the shop” and thus created an environment not conducive to easy government formation. Ever since 2000 elections when the left won government for the first time since independence there has been an increase in the number of political parties in Croatia siding with the left, even pro-communist Yugoslavia political skies. Whether the good result achieved by right-leaning DP is a sign of turning tides towards conservative politics is yet to be seen. Whether this is also a sign of consolidating patriotic mindset in Croatia is also to be seen. Certainly, leftist and green politics that have been given mandates in the parliament during elections since 2000 have eroded significantly the historical fact that almost 94% of Croats voted for independence from communist Yugoslavia in 1991.
The ruling party, HDZ, has this time around won 5 seats less that in 2020 elections and this fact in itself means that, given the mixed elections results, it will not be a tricky task forming a third government. Even if a government is formed, based on shaky and patchy foundations of policy compromises and deals. it would have all the parameters of a short-lived government, doomed for failure. Hence, snap or repeated elections could occur rather soon as significant rifts within the newly formed government seem likely.
Citizen anxieties about policy compromises and horse-trading during talks behind closed doors to form a government have gripped the Croatian public space during the past week and some are holding their breath until Monday 29 April when it is believed more details will become evident as to whether Croatia will have a new government or new parliamentary elections.
To recap: HDZ clearly – and unsurprisingly, given its unmatched resources and organisation – remains the largest party. But its numbers are significantly down on the last election in 2020 – and well short of the 76 required for a majority. A surprising move by the Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic to place himself as first candidate on the HDZ list for the June 2024 elections for Members of European Parliament has only thrown into the arena more speculation about his abandoning a „sinking ship“ and more unease. He claims, however, that he has placed his name on that list of candidates to make the list appear stronger! So, which is it one wonders (?) – flight or strength-building? Answer to that too shall surface rather soon.
Meanwhile, the SDP is disappointed that its controversial backing from President Zoran Milanovic – who was banned by the Constitutional Court from standing as a candidate for prime minister – has not brought more seats. Its total of seats won is little changed from 2020.
But both the right-wing patriotic Homeland Movement – whose leader Ivan Penava has said that they will talk to everyone regarding forming a government, and the socially and fiscally conservative MOST – who says HDZ must be sent into opposition, are playing hard to get. With HDZ talking to DP regarding possible coalition the Ethnic Minorites block led by Serb minority appear to be floating at this stage between HDZ and SDP, ready to join either!
The green-left Možemo/We Can party insists that it is not interested in supporting any government which includes the Homeland Movement.
If one tends to become confused about what is occurring behind the scenes to form a new government in Croatia one thing is clear and that there are natural and unnatural political bedfellows talking to each other about forming a government at this time. And some partnerships, if they emerge, might alienate other potential allies, indeed. Ina Vukic
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